A Race with a Ticking Doomsday Clock !

A Race with a Ticking Doomsday Clock !

The heads of the state and governments from across the globe met at the Danish Capital for the most-awaited summit in the recallable memory. Their mission couldn't be more ambitious: To save the planet from the catastrophic effects of climate change caused by the human race. Everyone across the world agrees on the dire need to limit carbon emissions and check global warming. Unfortunately still they are not in unison.

What made them so divided? Who are with whom? Who should do how much? who is going to pay? Will the two degree inch you towards doomsday? Is the underwater meet is enough ? Is this the time for reckoning?.....

We need to find out the answers.

It has been forecasted that the climate catastrophes are inevitable if the global temperature is rise above 2°C above its pre-industrial era level. The tipping point of 2° will be triggered by trillion tonnes of carbon emission. Over the last 250 years, of that one trillion has already been used up, mostly by the industrial nations. So, the fight is over the remaining half. And now here comes a tragedy, it is estimated that at the current rate of carbon emission, the balance 50% will be exhausted in just 40 years.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) headed by R K Pachauri, has estimated that emission levels need to brought down by atleast 80% from 1990 levels for the temperature to saty within safe zone. There's huge war over how the burden should be shared. I still doubt Copenhagen showed the light of a new day. The doomsday clock is well and ticking...And we still need to take a call.

We need to know "Who is with Whom" and What can make them come together for a cause.Global Warming has already started a wave of cold war by dividing the world into different blocks namely

• JUSSCANS (US, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada)
  
• G77 + China
  
• European Community
• AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States)
• LDCs (countries with lowest lowest socio-economic level of development)

JUSSCANS are the biggest and most carbon intensive economies. They don't want to submit to a global emission cut pact or a penalty-based scrutiny of commitments. They prefer a 'pledge and review' or 'schedule approach', which will allow countries to decide what minimal actions they want to take.They want India and other developing countries to undertake same kind of emission cuts as they will be taking.They also want the cuts to be shared on current and future emission not on the basis of historical responsibility. They are reluctant to provide finance and technology to developing and poor countries and prefer to sell their clean technologies. In short, they are keen to 'Kill Kyoto'

G77 + China
Emerging Economies: India,China,Brazil and South Africa are the leaders of G77. On per capita basis, their emissions are very low compared to rich nations, but in gross terms, because of their size, their emissions are growing the fastest. Rich nations find it difficult to convince their domestic audience that they might have to provide finance and technology to these economies.

Vulnerable 14 are the weak economies, Maldives, Bangladesh and countries just above sea level. Rich nations try to prise them out of G77 and form a separate bloc.

African Countries, weak economies are maily in G77 in the hope of getting funds for adaptation.

Oil Producing Countries such as Kuwait and UAE are there in G77 for tactcial reasons; they fear an economic hit if oil consumption were to fall, and so lobbying for response measures for compensating countries like them which could suffer revenue losses due to climate mitigation.

European Community was once a powerful votary of the kyoto protocol but now wants to dump it and go with US proposal of 'pledge and review'. France, Germany and UK are the key players.
AOSIS have the moral voice at the convention as they are the most vulnerable; even a minor sea rise in sea levels could drown them. Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Malta are some of them.

LDCs like Nepal, Bangladesh in Asia and several African countries has the support of all. Everyone- the rich and the developing countries agrees tha these countries should first get financial and technological support.

The divide between them needs to be bridged if the planet Earth is to be saved. The time has been reckoning from many years....

Let us look at the "Reckoning Time" chronologically...

1990
Negotiations for a UN convention on climate change launched by UN general assembly

1992 Rio Conference produces the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It enshrines the responsibility and duties of countries based on 'historical emissions'. It doesn't have hard targets, though.

1995 The Berlin Mandate
Recognising that the mother convention doesn't contain strong targets to achieve the goal, process set in motion to negotiate a protocol under the convention.

1997 Kyoto Protocol
It is finalised. It determines targets for emission cuts for industrialised countries against 1990 levels. A strict compliance mechanism with penalties in place.

1997-01
Hectic parleys where US plays spoilsport. Targets for industrialised countries to reduce emissions pared.

2002
Kyoto protocol becomes operative but US and Australia refuse to ratify it. First period for reduction of emissions set between 2008-12

2007 Fourth report of UN's IPCC warns that global temperatures must not exceed 2°c above pre-industrial era. Demands higher emission cut. Countries meet at Bali. Industrialised countries fight to push a greater burden of emission cuts on developing world and reduce their own burden of providing finance and technology.

2008 Recession hits globally. Obama promises to alter US potion on Climate front. Manmohan Singh alters India's stance, pledges to keep India's per capita emissions lower than that of developed countries. US remains unwilling to give technology and funds to emerging economies. EU follows suit. US launches work on domestic climate bill. India, China, and other developing countries, finalise their domestic climate change action plans.

2009 Attempts are made to kill Kyoto Protocol. African Countries boycott talks to put pressure for maintaining Kyoto. Uproar in parliament over India changing its climate stance. PM reiterates India's long standing position. China reveals a figure for reducing 'carbon intesnity" volunatarily. India follows suit on December 3 as it announces 20-25% carbon intensity cut on 2005 levels by 2020. The stage is set for Copenhagen.

Copenhagen The Copenhagen Accord (which has not been adopted by the Conference of Parties) agrees to weak and non-legally commitments from developed world. The agreement will be disastrous for the world, particularly the poor and the most vulnerable, as it will allow emissions to increase in the rich world. It agrees to a process, which will ultimately kill the Kyoto Protocol and undermine the legitimacy of the UNFCCC. It changes the framework based on equity and historical emissions. It agrees that developing country action, which are not supported through international finance and technology also be open “international consultation and analysis”, which could become a backhand way of bringing in international commitments on these countries. This is euphemistic language for international monitoring, reporting and verification.

The Accord proposes a pledge-and-review model for emissions reduction, which means that developed countries are only asked to take voluntary, domestic actions. This is a step backwards from the current Kyoto Protocol, which legally requires industrialised countries to make modest emissions cuts between 2008 and 2012.

In May 2009, India, China and 35 other developing nations had submitted an ambitious proposal to the UNFCCC to strengthen Kyoto by requiring nations to cut their emissions by 45 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. This is what scientists say is needed in order to avoid dangerous temperature rises of 2°C or more.

By agreeing to a pledge-and-review deal today, India has done an extraordinary about-face. The UN has estimated that current pledges by developing countries would sentence the world to temperature increases of at least 3°C. There is nothing in the Copenhagen Accord that can compel industrialised countries to take stronger near-term targets in order to avoid dangerous global warming.

Still miles to go for the notion "Lets share the burden"

Acknowledgement:The Times of India, Centre for Science and Social Research, The Hindu
Some Facts and Figures:
*US accounts for 29.3% of global emission; EU 26.5%, Russia 8.55%, China 7.6%, India 2.2%